Corn might have put in an interim top today. I say “might” because it all depends on what the beans do. If the fund buying frenzy that has sent the beans soaring starts up again, corn is going higher.

For today however, the market put in a big reversal day.

Chart_16-04-21_14-49-32

This particular market is so overbought that it could fall all the way back to the rising ten day moving average before it finally relieves that overbought status on some of the other indicators ( not shown). Fundamentally, I cannot find anything that justifies corn at these levels but a lot of the hot money flowing into the grains is coming in on expectations of a shift in the weather pattern from El Nino to La Nina and with that, drought in the corn belt this summer. That is a long way as we are still working on getting the crop in the ground. For Pete’s sake, you would think some of these guys would at least let the stuff get planted before they kill it all!

Beans faded well off their best levels of the session ( which were during the asian and european trade) but the old crop remained in positive territory. New crop November however went negative on the close.

Chart_16-04-21_14-56-17

Volume in the beans has simply been enormous. There is a wholesale changing of ownership taking place as commercials are selling to hedge funds in huge size.

We will want to keep an eye on this. I personally think the bean rally is nuts but as said often here, you cannot stand in front of a freight train and expect to not get run over. Without some sort of further bullish news however, it is difficult for me to see beans remaining at these levels. Bulls are banking on drought that may or may not set in. That is just too much for me personally.

Comments (1)

The last ten candles are huge. If this is the stairway up, the elevator down may have a snapped cable.

Black boxes could tip over a domino here. I’m concerned for the effect on the overall economy..

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